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Beating the Odds – Susquehanna International – Jeff Yass

Susquehanna buys and sells options and stocks quickly, in hundreds of thousands of transactions a day, yet it has remained largely below the radar even as it shapes the markets it plays in. For one thing, those who know him say he is very nervous about personal security. Yass is a self-styled outsider.

Besides, who can resist him. Yass might be thin and bald and pale and quiet, but he came up with a system for making hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on the ponies. Through its attorney, the company denies this. Once, Yass offered his golf caddie a ridiculous amount of money company lore has it at one million bucks if said caddie could make a hole in one.

Yass clearly decided, a long time ago, that he was going to have fun getting rich — and then more fun spending his dough. It was Yass played poker there with friends, mostly middle-class Jewish kids from Queens like Yass or Brooklyn. They skipped class and went to the racetrack.

They were science geeks — Yass himself majored in math and economics. The poker and betting on horses was cool and fun, but much more than that. The prism of probability and game theory and risk-taking could be applied to practically everything, Yass decided.

It was all about finding edge, how one thing plays against another. About figuring out the better way. Traders at Susquehanna joke about looking for edge from the moment of first light, with the decision of which side of bed to get out of. But they bet to win. Yass studied the Racing Form in the student union.

Other students reportedly gave him money to wager at the track, to risk as he saw fit because his game-theory approach worked. His approach was simple: Make something supposedly built on chance rational. Golf bets paid off gifs Turn the odds in your favor. Figure out the edge. He was that kind of guy. After college, Yass and his roommate Arthur Dantchik headed to Vegas; a couple others from Binghamton joined them.

June had been on an airplane once before in her life. Yass bought her a plane ticket with his Vegas winnings. He and Dantchik and other friends made cash at the track and playing poker. And now Yass was getting into trading options — a relatively new trading offshoot — on the American Stock Exchange, though he worked through brokers, not on the floor. Then he found the perfect vehicle to run with options.

For Yass, options presented a field day of opportunity: He could analyze the variety of possible reasons — some of them purely mathematical, plus a few complications and offshoots of options to play around with — why a stock might go either up or down. And he could figure out whether there was a market for the price, higher or lower, that would make him money; he would try to read other buyers and sellers, in other words.

Just like with poker, where a good player reads both the cards and the proclivities of other players. Virtually everybody might know that, but what almost everybody seems to miss is how that affects your odds. You have to think fast and make your move.

Several Binghamton classmates moved south to Philly. At this point, the worldview was simple: Big money was there for the taking. Meanwhile, Yass and his friends bet money — big money — on horse races and at dog tracks and jai alai frontons all over the country, according to the Inquirer some 20 years ago.

The Yass version would maintain a little more control of the bottom line. This is a central tenet of the Yass philosophy: If the odds are in your favor, go all out. At Susquehanna, when a trader takes the right position on an option, he buys big. In a lawsuit, Yass and friends revealed that they lost on out of betting days.

No problem. They still came out way ahead. The wagering was dangerous, though, because Yass and friends had to take wads of cash to racetracks. Meanwhile, options trading remained hot. That fall, the market crashed. On October 19th — Black Monday — the Dow dipped almost 23 percent. That day, Susquehanna made several million dollars. Options, remember, are a bet on stocks going up or down.

Yass made a bet on the market crashing by buying very cheap index options the cost of an option is related to the likelihood of the price of stocks hitting a certain number ; traders at other firms scratched their heads over this. To Yass, though, it was a bet on cost vs. It just requires a lot of cash and the faith to spread it around. But just the way it happened, it was too spooky.

The index option game was blamed by many at the time for making the Black Market collapse worse — and some big Wall Street firms got out of it. Few on Wall Street had even heard of Susquehanna. Buying and selling fast. Hundreds of thousands of transactions a day. The finance world was beginning to catch on that Susquehanna was a player.

The company made a fortune. How Jeff Yass paid a caddie who made a hole in one. The version that has Yass forking over a million bucks to a guy who made a golf shot, which paid for his hip surgery, is wrong, because a million would be a problem — not the amount, but the logistics of packing up that much cash and hauling it around.

Hit the flagstick, and crawled down like a rat in the sewer. Then, two weeks later, Yass hired limos, took McNeil and a bunch of his caddie buddies out to dinner at Savona in Gulph Mills, and presented him with a check for the balance. Inside Susquehanna, a betting culture prevails. Not just in trading. He paid off his bets, and then was quietly told by management not to make that sort of wager again.

He means both in trades and in how traders think. How many doughnuts can you eat in 20 minutes. Bmw golden suite no 1 Pocketing a few hundred bucks after winning his bet, he sat back at his desk munching the richest, most sugary doughnut. Just to rub it in. If you open your mouth, back it up. How many people will know what year — within 20 years, within 10 years, five — Abraham Lincoln was shot?

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