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But it's actually within the strokes-gained approach data that I see the real encouragement. This is a department in which McIlroy falls behind Scheffler, except not here. At Bay Hill, where there are fewer wedges, he's been inside the top 25 in approach play seven starts running, versus twice at Sawgrass, three times at Riviera and four times at Quail Hollow, by way of comparison.
He's averaging a stroke gained per round, which is about Scheffler's overall figure and is twice McIlroy's own lifetime average. That's down to the nature of approach shots played here versus elsewhere. Combine that with the way he's driving the ball and McIlroy has a mighty chance.
And while those comparisons with last year's market have certain caveats, consider that Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele have all just about halved in price. McIlroy's preparation has been near identical to last year and he's a couple of points too big.
Back him to win and potentially return to the top of the world rankings. It'll be fascinating to see where Hovland's game is around a course made for him and on balance he ought to be considered the main danger to the big two, though I do expect Xander Schauffele to play well. Granted, that's not saying much, but he's putted nicely here in the past which would allay the major concern apart from the fact he is probably the one elite golfer at whom questions over strike-rate are entirely fair.
For someone who has done very little wrong in the heat of battle in major championships, there's been something missing. Perhaps though that's just a little luck and it could all change at Bay Hill, a course he first played as a kid and has since returned to underline why it suits him so well as a professional. He was still just a promising rookie when 13th on debut, his performance helping secure a late Masters invite, and then last year he was inside the top 10 all week.
As you'd expect, both of these were powered by top-class driving and that's the level he's been operating at off the tee so far this year, while it's encouraging to see some solid approach work bar Pebble Beach, and even some improvements around the green, which tends not to be decisive here anyway.
It's the putter that should give us most cause for concern but Young was 13th on similar greens last week and seventh in Phoenix, and anything like that standard would make him a serious danger. In fact I would go as far as to say it'd make him close to a certainty to hit the top 10 given the state of his long-game at the moment.
As with McIlroy, stacks of drivers and longer approach shots both work in his favour and while he did have to come back on Monday for the finish of the Cognizant, rolling in a long birdie putt at 17 and adding another birdie at 18 should have him itching to get going again on Thursday. The former world number one has three top finishes in five starts so far this year, returning to the sort of form which preceded his victory in the Byron Nelson last May.
He was 10th at Bay Hill during that period but it's worth noting that his long-game at the time was not what it is now, with his approach work in particular having powered his last two finishes, at Pebble Beach sixth and Riviera ninth. But for a quiet run with the putter he'd have gone close to winning and I'm therefore hoping something as simple as a change in surface does the trick, particularly to these ones as he's gained strokes eight times in 10 visits and putted well when winning in If anything his approach work has kept him from contending again but despite that Day has been on the fringes a further six times and if he can bring this improvement with his irons with him this week, that makes him a live one at a nice price.
Day is very well suited to a proper grind, he hits the ball as high as virtually anyone, and a second Bay Hill win is perfectly possible if everything falls together. I expect him to stick around close to the top of the leaderboard all week. Hopefully, this is the tournament where such expectations are finally met. We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
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